Marka-i-Haq: Pakistan’s Firm Resolve to Reinforce Deterrence in South Asia
Pakistan is commemorating the first anniversary of Marka-e-Haq. The day affirms Pakistan`s firm resolve to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity. South Asia once again proved to be one of the most dangerous nuclear flashpoints in the world a year ago. In May 2025, India, on the unjustified basis of preventive strikes, attacked civilian sites in Azad Kashmir and Pakistan under the so-called Operation Sindoor. India conducted missile strikes on targets inside Pakistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJ&K), which was retaliated by Pakistan through military actions such as aerial engagements and cross-border fire, after showing strategic patience and justifying its response under the UN charter.
The history of Pak-India relations is characterized by wars and persistent conflicts. Time and again, India has initiated a conflict and sought to find gaps for a limited war with Pakistan. India`s recurrent false-flag operations for political gains have put the regional peace and stability at high risk. Indian aggression under the pretext of terrorism has brought the region to the brink of nuclear escalation many times. Giving a brief view on the crisis during the last two decades, India, instead of taking real counter-terrorism measures and investigation, has baselessly attributed terrorist incidents in India and the Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu & Kashmir (IIOJ&K) to Pakistan, followed by its military misadventures. As a matter of habit, India has accused Pakistan, without a single piece of evidence, of supporting the militant groups that carried out the attacks and launched airstrikes on Pakistan’s soil. Pakistan, as a sovereign state and responsible nuclear power, has shown strategic patience, restraint, and openness to neutral and transparent investigation of such incidents. However, Pakistan has not compromised on its sovereignty when India has attempted to undermine it.
The May 2025 terrorist attack in the Pahalgam Valley in IIOJ&K can be understood in the context of India`s history of false-flag operations and its attempts to fight a limited war with Pakistan without escalating it, a dangerous strategy that could not work in the nuclearized environment. The existence of nuclear weapons has always been significant as India avoided a step that would help to trigger an uncontrollable escalation. Also, intervention by third parties has continued to play a vital role, particularly in the four-day conflict in May 2025, which ended with a US-brokered ceasefire. While India claimed that these were punitive actions without triggering full-scale war, actions taken by Pakistan were aimed at proving a point without going to the extent of full-scale war; there is always a risk of escalation to the nuclear level.
Despite repeated de-escalation efforts, structural vulnerabilities underlie them, with dangerous gaps (Strategic hubris, doctrinal asymmetry, misperception, lack of reliable crisis communication, and political incentives for escalation) beneath the surface. The recurrent crises since 2019 have contributed to the increased military thresholds and a sense of competence in managing escalation, ultimately making future confrontation more hazardous. The other critical consideration is the local political compulsions in India, such as elections and nationalist rhetoric. It has been found that such political messaging in times of crisis may encourage leaders to act in an escalatory manner rather than exercise restraint.
In other words, the hardest truth is that stability is improvised, not built. The pattern is consistent throughout the crises from 2019 to 2025. The escalation is initiated deliberately by India, the restraint is improvised under pressure, and the de-escalation depends on luck, signaling, and external actors. There is no strong, durable, and institutionalized risk-reduction system that can ensure stability under such fragile conditions. Even major studies conclude that Cold War-style stability models do not fully apply to South Asia, where signaling is less formalized and more volatile.
Lastly, Marke-e-Haq demonstrates Pakistan`s firm resolve to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of India’s aggression. India`s extremist ideologies, such as Hindutva and Akhand Bharat, continue to pose threats to regional security, particularly Pakistan. In such a volatile environment, nuclear deterrence, robust military capabilities, emerging technologies, and economic independence are vital for Pakistan.
To avoid the eventual catastrophe, lessons from real crises must be considered. First, proper and formalised crisis communication mechanisms are crucial to ensure the reliability, use, and supplement of the hotlines with real-time backchannels. Second, there must be clear signaling frameworks which, if not full, give enough clarity to help in the reduction of misinterpretation of intent. Third, institutionalized escalation-control doctrines need to be established, which could predefine thresholds and decision chains rather than relying on ad hoc crisis improvisation.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Opinion Desk.