Future of Russia Ukraine war
The most consequential war of 21st century started with the aim that it will end in ten days but now four years have been passed and it is still continued. War take heritage, cultures, infrastructure, livelihoods, lives and give back only sorrow, bereavement, casualties, displacement and place everything of the nations at imperil point. There were tensions between Russia and Ukraine from the time when Soviet Union collapsed. After independence of Ukraine in 1991, the newly born country faced many challenges. It was weak politically and economically and also there were regional divisions. On one side it was making diplomatic relations with Russia and on the other side Ukraine sought cooperation with NATO, this created a security dilemma, Russia viewed this as NATO’s expansion towards Russia. Russia structures it as a threat to its security interests.
The war was initially started in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea. However, the conflict escalated on 24 Feb 2022 when Russia launched full scale war against Ukraine. To avoid any future war Minsk agreement was signed in 2014 but no long-lasting settlements were made and there were violations of ceasefire and there was disagreement over the security first vs the political settlement first which leads to failure of the agreement. In 2022, the escalation in war, use of drone technology, iteration strategies, long range strikes and a prolonged period which is still continued today. But why all peace formulas are failed and there is no termination point in the war till today?
Both countries failed to achieve the decisive victory. The leaders have to consider their public opinion too and neither side is ready to withdraw or give relief to other side any such step for them can lead to there personal political loss or can become a political suicide. Both countries paid the price of this prolonged war according to CSIS by June 2026 approximately 1.4 million Russian military casualties and approximately 525,000–625,000 Ukrainian military casualties and Russian military expenditure of Russia reached approximately $190 billion in 2025 and that of Ukraine approximately 84.1 billion almost 40 percent of its GDP.
Military solution is costly the problem needs to be addressed properly as if it becomes freezing conflict the dispute will remain the same. The technological advancement and attacks on critical infrastructure increasing the economic pressure. There is only military exhaustion without any political resolution. there is need to prevent the frozen conflict because ceasefire doesn’t mean that there is permanent peace. And if there is proper ceasefire may be one side consider that the other side is preparing for rearmament for a greater attack for the next move. A credible monitoring and enforcement body is needed to prevent the war from becoming freezing conflict and move towards the termination of war.
A diplomatic bargaining can be the solution but here is the question of territory of Ukraine it’s the question of the sovereignty, almost 20% territory of Ukraine has been captured by the Russia. Military deterrence and diplomatic leverage both needs to go side by side. There are security concerns on both sides and the conflict needs the management and resolution and only militarily it’s not possible because that option is still in use today but so conflict management has been seen so far. There should be proper mechanism of independent bodies who will manage the ceasefire and a step-by-step move is needed because both parties have the issue of trust deficit.
The war cannot be terminated by a ceasefire it needs phased negotiations, security guarantees and international monitoring. Already there is a lot of war exhaustion and impacts on economy and military. If security guarantees are provided by Russia, then Ukraine will not seek for more security from NATO and when it will not then Russia also feel secure from Nato and European countries also satisfy that there will be no annexation towards them so a security guaranty and trust development is the need.
This war is significant example that only military power is not the guaranty of decisive victory. The Russia Ukraine war started from regional conflict in 2014 to full escalation war in 2022 and military advancement, iteration strategies and sanctions none of these give a sustainable victory to either side. So, for political bargaining negotiations and use of diplomatic door is the perfect option to end the prolonged war. Now its not about the winning and loosing its about the durable settlement which can give secure and peaceful future to both countries.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Opinion Desk.
