The dangerous politics of choke points
All students of geopolitics must rethink the famous line coined by the famous US naval officer and historian, Alfred Thayer Mahan, “Whoever controls the sea lines of communications, masters the global order.” Indeed, every serious student of geopolitics might know it, but I am astonished why those in the Oval Office have forgotten the lesson given by their contrymen over a century ago. The neoliberal world order celebrated globalization after World War II, but in framing this new order, it considered the oceans as mere transit routes. However, these transit routes are now the nerves of global health. Now, more than 90% global trade happens through sea routes; a minimal disruption in any part of the ocean sends ripple effects throughout the global economy.
A foreign policy article, “The Human Reality of Realpolitik”, written by Anthony Lake and Roger Morris in 1971, reflects the present situation, the strategic miscalculations of Washington in imposing war on a country that sits on top of the global oil choke point. The article, over half a century ago, has highlighted the limitations of international frameworks’ application to grasp the vulnerable realities in the expanded, complex global order. The unfortunate thing with understanding the value of global choke points is that no one gives it a heed until their oil tanks are empty are dried. History offers lessons to the world, but sapiens refuse to learn.
The US-Israel war on Iran has slammed the global economy, due to the latter’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, an important choke point that channels one-fifth of global energy supply and 20,000 ships annually. In a matter of a few days, the global oil prices rose by 50%, crossing $120 per barrel by March 7th, jumping from a pre-war price of $70 per barrel. Disruptions in the supply jolted the world to its knees, with domestic inflation and surging oil prices.
The looming economic crisis, which probably isn’t the last time, brings us to reconsider our understanding of global choke points. They aren’t mere trade routes, but the guarantor of our future. From East Asia to the Caribbean islands, the whole map of the world is threaded by strategic choke points that serve as important trade routes. The importance of the tight maritime corridors can be gauged from the volume of ships they see every year. Panama cannal channels 14,000 ships every year, the Suez Cannal 18,000, Strait of Hormouz 20,000, Malacca strait 84,000, and English Channel 146,000 vessels. The ease of transit and fast shipping, while the vulnerability and exerting pressure of global trade are two sides of the coin.
The vulnerability comes with the strategic locations and narrowness of the straits, which often exceed their benefits. The world is currently seeing Iran using its sole trump card to choke the Strait and pressure the world to shout at Trump and Co. to end their baseless aggression. The important card in its lap, Iran is exploiting the vitality of the strait to sustain the aggression, as its economy has long been devastated, reaching the lowest point in its modern history. With the rise in global prices and inflation, as the IMF has forecasted the rise of global inflation by 4.4% and the UNDP has warned about the plunging of 23 million more people into poverty due to rising prices, the aggressive arsenal of the US-Israel will contract, easing the breathing space for Iran. If it were without its strategic location, Iran would not have sustained for much longer or achieved its strategic objectives.
However, the politics of choke points isn’t new. Two years back, at the brink of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, the conflict between Yemen Houthis and Saudi-led coalition forces had blocked Bab-Al-Mandab, another important and highly militarized trade choke point which sees 10% of global trade shipping and 6 million barrels of oil per day. The militarization isn’t always a trouble for the global trade; climate change and structural barriers also add to the pool of troubles, sometimes. For instance, in 2021, the ever busy, Suez Canal, which is just 19 miles wide a some points, was blocked by the mammoth container ship, Ever Green, stuck diagonally in the passage, for six days, cost millions and 400 vessel blockage. The Panama Canal near the US is seeing another issue, the depleting level of water, which has led to troubles in the strait in 2025, while the choke point’s traffic has decreased by one-third due to structural and climatic factors.
Oil isn’t the only commodity vital for the smooth sailing of the world economy anymore. With the rise of green energy, batteries, AI systems, sophisticated defense machines, and memory chips, the global supply chain is more important than ever. Taiwan and China are the top exporters of Chips, accounting 60% of total trade and 90% total production, which are lifelines of modern AI systems and Electronic devices. Global giants like Apple, HP, NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Broadcom depend heavily on the supply of these semiconductor chips. Most of this trade happens through the Strait of Malacca, which again, is another vulnerable choke point entangled between Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand.
Similarly, South Korea is the critical player in memory production, a vital component of the modern AI infrastructure. The future of the safety of transit in East Asia, especially the South China Sea, will determine the future of the AI systems. In the West, in Europe, the Netherlands is the sole commercial supplier of the extreme UV lithography machines, which are integral for the mass production of semiconductors. Again, the future of machines is at the mercy of the safety of the English Channel and global routes. Meanwhile, Egypt is the critical passage for the cross-continent cable network and internet connectivity; more than 90% cable network runs through the Red Sea cable corridor, accounting for 17% of global internet traffic. A subtle disruption will dry up the data supply of three continents.
The future of the safe transit doesn’t need growing militarization but strategic global policy reforms, which can transcend the geopolitical dominance of the important choke points. The UN Conventions of Law of the Seas (UNCLOS) is a comprehensive framework that has set rules for easy and safe transits, but the white-collar policy makers must consider fresh policy reforms and draw a comprehensive doctrine, engaging both state and non-state actors, that can cover the geopolitical and geostrategic realities. They must refrain from repeating the same mistake that Anthony and Roger pointed out half a century ago. The militarization and blocking of choke points won’t pay much to the future of the world; on the contrary, it will push the human race further beyond the poverty and instability lines.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Opinion Desk.
